So a little while ago I promised you all that you'd get a part three, an ending to the 2021-22 season that would have me explain my predictions, hopes and expectations for the 2022-23 season. However, due to having a really busy personal life, that plan all went a bit tits up. Some days, I just feel like life doesn't stop. And when it does, I'm usually flopped on the sofa binge watching TV shows that came out several years ago that I'd never got around to watching.
Ironic now that I am now here, where I have finally got around to writing (once again) about our Ottawa Senators.
We are over the halfway point of the season now and speeding toward the trade deadline. This season so far has brought so many mixed feelings for me, and I expect that to continue. I think part of the reason I feel this way is because the aims for the team have changed. We should be coming out of a rebuild now. We used to be so down bad that we clung to anything remotely entertaining that would be a bright spot. We had Sens Sickos, the no shut out streak, beating the Habs or Leafs feeling like a Stanley Cup win (who remembers the 15th February 2021?), I could go on. But there are actual expectations now for this team, and for this organisation- and they aren't quite being met.
Strap yourselves in folks, my ADHD riddled ass has finally been able to hyperfocus on this blog, so you're in for a long one.
The last few years: what went wrong?
1. A history of bad decisions
Hindsight is 20/20 for our organisation, but why does it feel like for most of the bad decisions regarding this team, the fans knew they were going to be bad decisions. Call it pessimism, call it the fact many Ottawa fans are advanced stats fans before eye tests, call it what you want. There have been many questionable player-related actions the past few years. I'll cover some here, but if I went into all of the things that the team and org has screwed up in recent memory I'd need a whole other blog post.
Firstly, Matt Murray. The whole saga. That's it. That's the tweet sentence.
Secondly, albeit a while ago now, trading DeMelo. It never sat right with me. He was such a good partner for Chabot- he wasn't flashy, but he was reliable. He relieved some of the pressure from Chabot! We sent DeMelo to Winnipeg as we didn't want to sign him. We then tried the Erik Gudbranson experiment (paying him about the same amount of money DeMelo wanted). Never again. Then we got Travis Hamonic shortly after, paying yup you guessed it, the SAME AMOUNT OF MONEY.
And before you say that DeMelo wanted term, and that Gudbranson was here for less, and that Hamonic has less of that too, Dorion has just recently confirmed that Hamonic won't be dealt at the deadline, which means either we may re-sign him, or we are going to let him walk, without getting a anything for him, which makes little sense to me. I spoke on twitter about the fact I wouldn't hate keeping Hamonic around past the trade deadline, but with the caveat that we do this if we aren't doing a playoff push (tank for Bedard anyone?). But even then, just because I wouldn't hate it, doesn't mean I would like it- I still would have preferred a trade. You never know, maybe PD will pull a fast one on us and change his mind ("Guy is our coach" ring any bells?)
Thirdly, almost all of the more recent fever dream players.
Fourthly, do you remember several years ago when Eugene Melnyk commented on how Toronto had no defence? Then not long after, the Sens went on and hired the Leafs' defence coach as a head coach, signed of one their former defencemen, and then in a trade acquired another one of their defenceman (that we only just got rid of)? Yeah that.
Finally, speaking of getting rid of people, or not. While we talk about bad decisions, the more recent issues existing have come from decisions that haven't been made. The things that PD DIDN'T do this off-season are starting to overshadow the things he did do, namely:
- not addressing the blue line issues
- not upgrading our bottom 6 to ones who can at least produce some points (I shall refer you to this piece written by the lovely Trevor for more information on that)
- not properly addressing coaching (I don't care if the players love him, dump and chase is the worst team "tactic" I've heard in a long time)
2. Dumb draft unluckiness
What hasn't helped, is the lack of draft lottery luck. Despite being bottom feeders, the Sens haven't won the draft lottery. We finished 30th, 31st and then 30th again and you're telling me the highest we got in those years was a third overall pick THAT WASN'T EVEN OURS? I know this is down to sheer dumb luck (or if you believe the draft is rigged, then you can go with that), however it just stings so much.
Yes, Timmy is an absolute star and I adore him, his play is insane, every time I watch him he grows more and more into a human highlight reel.
But I can't help but wonder what this team would look like if we'd have had more picks that reflected our positions in the league better.
3. A very slow rebuild, fuelled by not fuelled by much at all
If we look at the teams over the last few years that have been bottom feeders, including us, many of them are on vastly different trajectories. To help my brain process this, I've attempted to make a graph showing a variety of teams and their positions over the last few years, not including the 2020-2021 Covid season that wasn't real (unless we are talking about the no shut-out streak in which case it was very real).
That painfully slow and steady upward curve in silver is your Ottawa Senators, or should I say, your Silver Seven Sens ;) (I'm just kidding guys please don't sue me or anything)
Looking at the other teams:
- I'm hesitant to focus on New Jersey because, well, how the fuck has that happened?
- I'm ignoring New York because their "rebuild" basically lasted 0.5 seconds, they put money into the team, made clever moves and now they're insane again.
- Edmonton but they have McDavid and Draisaitl, two walking cheat codes.
- I'm not going to attempt to figure out San Jose and Philadelphia.
- Not dwelling on Chicago, Arizona , Anaheim and Vancouver other than to say after trying to fight the downward spiral they may have finally accepted their fates.
- Montreal are basically us but a few years later.
- Still not sure why I even put Seattle on here but I guess they did suck last year.
- Columbus is also a how the fuck has that happened but in reverse. RIP Blue Jackets fans.
But if we are speaking more realistically, teams such as Buffalo, Detroit and LA, are all teams we could be making comparisons to in my opinion. Currently, all outperforming us. Yet, I look at our top 6 now, I look at our talent, and I still feel like we could easily be doing better these teams.
But this is why this team needs to get it's arse into gear.
(Side note 1: I have no idea how the stats community does data visualisation all the time I made these on excel and still wanted to kill myself)
(Side note 2: this graph is accurate as of like the night of Monday 20th)
The start of the 2022-23 season: how did we go into it?
At the start of the season, it seemed fans (at least on the bird site) were split. Several thought we were a playoff team, no questions. The odd few thought it was completely and utterly hopeless. But there was a good portion of people, myself included, were simply hoping that we would be a 500+ team that would simply improve, and possibly end up in the wild card/playoff bubble conversation (but knowing this would ultimately be unlikely in arguably the most competitive division and conference).
We had just come off the back of the Summer of Pierre / Hot Pierre Summer, and the vibes were immaculate. We had bought in the off season, not sold?! PD had installed a lot of hope in us. But there was still the aforementioned issues of the blueline, the questioning around coaching, and the fear that we just didn't have depth.
But if any of you were really like me, you were just happy to have this dumb team back.
The 2022-23 season: how is it going?
1. A poor start
I look back, and I still genuinely think that our poor start, especially losing 7 in a row (with 1 OT loss) back in October-November, hurt our chances from the get-go. We aren't a team like the Penguins who can have a bloody shite start and then just win every bloody game and breeze into the playoffs like it's nothing every year. It seems that the start the Sens have typically determines the tone of the season itself. Last season, the Sens lost 6 in a row around the same time period.
By November 14th last year, we were 4-10-1. November 14th this year? 5-9-1. In 2021, we had lost most of our team because we got decimated by Covid. In 2022, we were in a far better position than the team last year had. Yet, the record, and feelings of hopelessness and doubt, were the same in both seasons.
Thankfully, since then Sens have clawed back a lot of games, and have started to play "meaningful hockey" (I think, I mean who really even understands the true meaning of that). If we compare records once again, on the 20th February last year after 49 GP, we were 18-26-5. After 56 GP we were 20-31-5. As I write these stats, we are on the 20th February, with 56 GP, we are 27-25-4 and about 5 or 6 points out of a wild card spot.
But I just can't help but wonder how things would have looked if we had have gotten out of the gate quicker.
2. Injuries injuries injuries
To be honest, throughout this year the Sens have been plagued by injuries. Losing a star in Josh Norris for basically the entire season has been awful. Not just for us fans but of course Josh himself. Plus, it's also never great to see another shoulder injury. I swear we are cursed by them.
Not only this, but we have also seen significant injuries to the most important players on our blueline (Chabot/Zub/Sanderson). With our blueline not the best to begin with, losing these players has really hampered good chances we have had.
Lastly, as I write, because of injuries to both Talbot and Forsberg, the Sens are rocking with a tandem of two goalies who have 7 NHL games combined. I did think as soon as Forsberg went down we would be up shit creek without a paddle, but Søgaard and Mandolese are doing so well and I'm so proud of them.
3. Some bright spots
When I originally started throwing down notes for this a few weeks ago, the attitude I had back then is wildly different to the one I have writing this now (which has meant rewording this post A LOT).
It's been very hard, and well at times still is, to cope with the way this team seems to pull on our emotions. One minute I'm furious, I think we suck, we're never going to make it, not at least for even more years, the rebuild isn't over, etc. Then this team has me crawling back as soon as they get a win, (even against teams we should be beating anyway), starting to wonder if maybe just maybe we could make the playoffs, maybe we could go on a crazy run again, maybe other teams will shit the bed.
Realistically, neither of these are great moods for me personally. Currently, I would say my mood has mostly shifted to be realistic and relaxed, but more positive-leaning. I want to talk about these positives.
- The whole year our top six forward group has been producing (and definitely compensating for the bottom six). Tkachuk has been playing like a hungry rabid dog, Giroux is nearly a point per game aged 35, DeBrincat despite a slower start is now invaluable, Pinto and Stützle have been making some beautiful highlight reel moves, and uhhh Batherson has uhhh scored and often on the powerplay I guess.
- The emergence of Sanderson as a guaranteed top four defencemen has been a joy to watch.
- We have recently gone 7-2-1, beating teams like the Leafs and only narrowly losing to Boston, a team who we have already beaten twice.
- Our rookie goalies Søgaard and Mandolese are performing fantastically given the pressure on them right now, both working to averages well above .900%
And while some games this season have just been unbearable (the blowout to the Avs comes to mind), games such as the other day against the Blues install a hope in me that this team is going to keep getting better. The joy I felt seeing the goals, the players celebrating, the little kids going nuts (with their little lightsabers in tow), the absolutely ecstatic tweets on my timeline, it was all so great.
But what does the team need to do to accomplish this?
1. @DJ Smith, STOP BLAMING EVERYTHING ON ERIK BRÄNSTRÖMM
Yes, Branny sometimes makes some boneheaded plays. But every time he makes one big mistake DJ staples him to the bench or scratches him like a naughty school kid. And yet for the past several years, the supposed reliable vets have made just as many if not more mistakes, and very rarely have they been held accountable. And when fans call out the players, DJ then goes and blames fans for being too harsh on said vets. Yes, fans are probably being harsh but in reality this comes from frustration at DJ's over-reliance on them when they don't produce and are basically anchors to the young defenceman they are paired with. We aren't mad at them as people, we're mad at the mistakes they make due to DJ's poor deployment. Not only this, but we are also mad at at PD for not giving DJ the best tools to begin with either.
Brännström will make a good third-line defenceman, I just wish his load was better balanced (i.e. stop playing him too much then not at all) and was put in more positions to succeed.
2. Address said blueline 'veterans' and the bottom 6, either at the deadline or if necessary, in the off-season
Currently, I'm not sure if we are good enough for guaranteed playoffs, but we are also too good to suck. Normally in the NHL, that's the worst place to be. No playoffs, and no lottery. While the front office probably needs to think about what kind of team we are going to be at the deadline (buyers, sellers, maybe sort of buyers but not really?) and when we should do things, I don't think for fans the 'when' really matters right now. Yes it would be amazing to push for playoffs, yes it would be okay if we slowed down a bit and went for a lottery pick this year- although the latter would mean Chicago get a better 2nd rounder and Toronto gets a better 3rd rounder, ugh. Either way, it's just nice to have seen seen some good results for once.
With that being said though, here are my thoughts on moves the Sens should make, at some point.
When it comes to subtractions, Hamonic and Zaitsev have to g- wait. Speaking of Chicago.
I had almost finished this post at the beginning of this week (20th Feb), and was pretty satisfied with most of it. And then PD went and bloody traded Zaitsev. So now I have to talk about it. We shipped Zaitsev off to Chicago along with a 2nd and a 4th for 'future considerations' (no, not the same future considerations that played with Gulk, another future considerations). Firstly, hopefully Zaitsev can find a better home in Chicago. Secondly, it's good we got that contract off the books. But lastly, and probably what grinds my gears the most- we should never have taken on that deal. So many times has PD had to go and undo mistakes that while he may not have made, he took on. The Sens have a habit of taking on bad contracts and not even getting much from other teams for them. Yet we have to always give up so much to then get rid of that contract, after not even getting much out of the player either. I want to know what dirt so many of these teams have on PD.
Anyway back to moves. Holden, we could move too, although I guess I wouldn't mind him as a 7D. Watson could make a great addition to any team wanting to knock some teeth out of someone following a missed penalty call in the playoffs. Gambrell also needs to be moved for an upgrade or a pick. Hell, as much as I desperately want to root for them, so badly, if need be Kelly and Kastelic can go on the block too.
In terms of subtractions for important additions, I would not be mad at moving Batherson for a top defenceman. Hopefully NHL teams will look past his complete lack of defensive skills in favour of the goal scoring he could bring them in the playoffs. And regarding the World Juniors situation and speculation surrounding his possible involvement, the current hockey world has already proved GMs won't care about that. But even if we keep Batherson- we just freed up some damn good cap space from the Zaitsev trade we can use to get a top dman.
Ya know come to think of, there's this crazy talented Swedish guy who's name keeps floating around...
3. Give Chabot some rest. Or a holiday. Maybe therapy.
For the past few years, Thomas Chabot has been the top defenceman that we have heavily relied upon. We have played him and played him and played him, and this season, the cracks are starting to show. He looks hurt, he is making mistakes, stupid plays. His still ever-present flashes of sheer brilliance are now unfortunately being overshadowed. Whenever Zub was injured Zaitsev was thrown out next to Chabot, as if a plaster is good enough to cover a wound that would normally need stitches.
An addition to the blueline would not only help us win, but would also help spread the load better between Chabot/Zub/Sanderson, would allow us to give Chabot less ice time. If not, I fear we'll continue to break him more than we already have done.
4. Fire DJ
Yes I know the players love him, the locker room is good, morale is good, likeable guy, I could go on.
But what else right now does he bring? He doesn't bring experience but he certainly isn't bringing radical fresh ideas either, he is making the weirdest deployment decisions (why are you always sending out the fourth line at pivotal moments when we are a goal down?), he has this idea that grinding is far more important than skill, and don't even get me started on the openly admitted to dump and chase "strategy".
The team needs to calm down with the drop passing, they need to not panic during a 5-on-3 and overthink and waste minutes' worth of scoring opportunities, they need consistency and structure.
Above all else, I just think to take us to a higher level we need a more experienced, tried and tested coach. While normally I too get tired of the same NHL coaches cycling around, I think for us at least, it's time for a change. So, I quickly searched up some of the available coaches right now.
Alain Vingneault? Nah I think I'm good.
Dave Tippet? See above.
Bruce Boudreau? Possibly. He managed to keep the Vancouver team from being a complete and utter failure for a few years, but I fear his popularity may overshadow a real analysis of what he would be like as a coach for us. I'm not going to sit here and pretend I know a lot about coaching, but friends, analysts, general hockey people etc. that I follow, who are much smarter than I am, are querying if he would be a fit.
Barry Trotz? ... Barry Trotz. Who despite being one of the most winning-est coaches in NHL history, somehow still hasn't been hired since being fired by the Islanders for... *checks notes*.... missing the playoffs in a season where the team was plagued with injuries, and also for being more of a tough-love guy, ironically by a GM who is known for being extremely particular about how much facial hair a player is allowed to have and for signing awful contracts and openly admitting to it.
Barry Trotz? Barry Trotz. I think I'd be alright with that.
(Unfortunately though he has said he might not return to the NHL unless interest is shown by an Original Six team. BOO.)
5. Consider the need for PD to go too
Yes, a lot of the way the team is deployed grinds my gears, but there is also only so much you can do with what you have given. PD has made several bad choices the last few years, and while he has brought in DeBrincat and Giroux, and sensibly locked up other players such as Norris, Tkachuk and Stützle, I still don't know if he has done enough lately to make up for the past. Even if he has, I'm not sure how much it would matter anyway, as along with new ownership will most likely come a clean slate.
6. Speaking of ownership...
Admittedly one of the things often holding PD back (yes, I am going through the whole chain here) was ownership, and the lack of both willingness and ability to spend money. It is really sad that it took a man dying to change things, but here we are. Hopefully moving forward the team might actually have money invested into it and we won't be the laughing stock of the league anymore.
(Can you imagine if we actually start giving players SIGNING BONUSES?!)
As most of you reading this will be aware, dozens of groups have apparently shown interest in buying the Sens. I hope that the winning group is willing to actually put money into the team, and also into a downtown arena.
One of these groups includes the Remington group, who have appeared to have partnered with the one and only Ryan Reynolds. Reynolds has been teasing interest in being a minority owner of the Sens now for several months, and fans have been going crazy over the idea of the cool Deadpool guy owning the team.
While I agree that Reynolds being part owner would be great, for me, it's for different reasons. Reynold's ownership of footie team Wrexham has seen interest in that team skyrocket. People all over the world have now heard of a small town in Wales that previously they never would have heard of. Wrexham have reached their conference's playoff semi-finals, season ticket sales have gone through the roof, the club got sponsored by TikTok, they had a whole documentary made about them, I could go on. The fame and notoriety Reynolds could bring to the Sens could completely change the nature of the future of this team, which would be a big change for a team that is often dismissed, or forgotten about completely. Oh and if he wants to bring Rob McElhenney with him, the more the merrier.
And what do we, as fans, need to do?
So, what do us fans need to do? Well, disclaimer before I start, I am definitely guilty of being a bit negative at times and tending to overthink/overworry about this team (hey, I have GAD, what do you expect?). But I want us, yes, including me, to do the following:
Firstly, look back on how truly down bad we were. Losing our captain, some key franchise players, finishing dead last in the league (and second last on two other occasions), icing teams filled with career fourth liners, I could go on.
Secondly, look at how we've come. Yes it's been a bloody slow rebuild. Yes, we still have long way to go. But like, look at this season, look at our team and player stats, look at how many of us are going to games again and actually caring again! Look at us! Who'd have thought? Not me!
Thirdly, continue to speak up and challenge things. No, I'm not saying we should all be utter dickheads, but it has and will always be the case that you can love a team and still comment on real issues. The two are not mutually exclusive.
Fourthly, and finally, think about the future! Do you know bloody disgusting this team is going to be when we get Norris back, on top of our other forwards? Literally D E S G U S T E N G.
We as fans are also going to get more and more insufferable. And I don't know about you, but I really can't wait for that either.
End thoughts
I would like to end this post by doing two shout outs:
Firstly to the crew at Game Over: Ottawa, for kindly having me on their podcast twice now! They do great work reviewing games just after they have ended, and provide a great space for fans to celebrate in or be miserable in together.
Secondly, to all the folks at Silver Seven Sens. This blog wouldn't have been started if it weren't for their influence and inspiration- hell, they've been an integral part of my journey from being a Sens fan stuck back in the UK to having the online presence I do today. Please consider donating to their gofundme here.
As always, these posts wouldn't be possible without some data from:
https://www.hockey-reference.com/
https://www.nhl.com/
https://www.capfriendly.com/
https://www.espn.com/nhl/
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